Browse Data and Analysis

FAS Manila forecasts Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 rice imports to reach 4.60 million metric tons (MT), given the implementation of Executive Order No. 62, 2024 that reduced rice tariff rates from 35 to 15 percent.

Despite record production and ample stocks, the Philippines is forecast to import a record volume of rice. Large imports are spurred in part by high domestic prices and the recent government decision to reduce tariffs from 35 to 15 percent.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2024/25 milled rice production will increase to 12.125 million MT as the country emerges from the current El Nino and government spending on inputs and machinery contributes to increased yield.

On December 22, 2023, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. signed Executive Order No. 50 (EO 50) extending lower tariffs on pork, corn, and rice for another year or until December 31, 2024. EO 50 was published on December 26, 2023, and took effect immediately upon publication.

FAS Manila maintains its September 2023 forecast for rice and corn production and imports, but lowers its forecast slightly for wheat imports to 6.0 million metric tons.

FAS Manila expects rice imports to decline to 3.5 million MT as high prices in the international market and price ceilings ordered by the President disincentivize imports.

This report outlines the Philippine government requirements for the importation of corn. It also provides points of contact for key Philippine government authorities.

There are no changes to rice and corn production and imports, nor wheat imports for MY 2023/24.

FAS Manila forecasts MY 2023/24 milled rice production will rebound to 12.55 million MT because of increased government funding to the sector, which is expected to increase fertilizer application. FAS Manila forecasts rice imports flat at 3.6 million MT because of increased local production.

The Philippines maintains a Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) for corn (H.S. 1005). Following the reduction of tariffs in 2022 and their extension in 2023, significant interest in how to access the in-quota tariff ensued, and in turn, so followed widespread concern among local stakeholders for the process being anti-competitive, outdated, and potentially inconsistent with the Philippines' commitments with trading partners.

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.