Browse Data and Analysis

FAS/San José expects orange production to increase approximately 11 percent in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 to 250,000 metric tons. Production in MY 2023/24 was lower than previously expected at 225,000 metric tons as a result of erratic rainfall patterns associated with the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Peru’s mandarin/tangerine production and exports are expected to recover and increase by two and three percent, respectively, in MY 2023/2024 (March 2024 to February 2025). Production is forecast to reach 560,000 metric tons (MT), while exports are forecast to recover to 210,000 MT.

For marketing year (MY) 2023/24, Post updates fresh lemon production down to 1,700 metric tons (MT). This revision is attributed to the unexpected weather conditions with temperatures higher than usual and rains during harvest that affected original production estimates.

In marketing year (MY) 2023/24, with an increasing trend in area planted and assuming regular yields, Post estimates lemon production to grow by 6.7 percent and reach 175,000 (MT) metric tons. Chilean lemon exports will increase 8.8 percent, totaling 74,000 metric tons.

The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24 is forecast at 378 million 90-pound boxes (MBx) - standard reference, equivalent to 15.42 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 7.3 percent compared to previous Post estimate (408 million boxes or 16.5 MMT), primarily due to poor weather conditions that culminated in a more severe drought, as well as impacts from greening.