Browse Data and Analysis

After an EU-wide drought in 2022, the EU27 dairy herd is forecast to drop below 20 million head in 2023. This will lead to a continued decrease in milk production and deliveries for factory use despite higher farm gate milk prices. As EU dairy processors continue to favor cheese production, the decrease in milk deliveries will be at the expense of butter and non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and, to a lower extent, lower whole milk powder (WMP) production, despite high world market prices.

EU environmental restrictions are stagnating milk production in Northwestern European Member States (MS). As a result, EU27 peak milk production was likely reached in 2020 and cow milk production in the EU27 is forecast at 144.6 million MT (MMT) for 2022, a decrease of 434,000 MT compared to 2021 and 836,000 MT down from 2020.