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Indonesia introduced a new, simplified set of export levies for palm oil products, effective September 21, 2024, amidst decreasing crude palm oil (CPO) exports due to competition from other edible oils. Most of the new levies for palm oil exports will be reduced to between 3 percent to 7.5 percent of the reference price which the Government of Indonesia sets monthly.

Indonesia palm oil exports are estimated to decline to 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24 on lower output and weaker demand from key destination markets. Post revised down 2023/24 palm oil production to 45.6 MMT as 2023’s El Nino led to much lower yields than previously anticipated.

Post revises production estimates for MY 2023/24 down to 18.8 million tons accounting for hot and dry El Niño weather effects and limitations regarding labor. Top importing countries continue to drive demand and stocks drop to 1.83 million tons for MY 2023/24.

Indonesia palm oil production is forecast to rise marginally to 47 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024/25 on expected recovery from extreme weather in 2023.

This report analyzes all vegetable oil markets in Korea, whether for food or industrial use, and covers oils derived from soybean, palm, palm kernel, olive, rapeseed/canola, grapeseed, sunflower seed, corn, coconut, sesame, perilla seed (a leafy plant from the mint family), and rice bran.

Post revised down Indonesia palm oil exports estimate to 27.9 million metric ton (MMT) on lower supplies, higher domestic use and expected reduced export demand for 2023/24. Palm oil use for the biodiesel industry is revised down to 12.3 MMT for 2023/24 on lower-than-expected biodiesel distribution in 2023.

Post revised the forecasted palm oil production in marketing year MY2023/24 to 19.0 million metric tons (MT) and exports to 16.6 million MT. Contrary to expectation, the El Niño weather pattern in Malaysia has so far been weak to medium intensity.

Ample opportunities exist for U.S. agricultural exports to South Korea. Highlighted in the chart above, U.S. agricultural product exports were a record $9.5 billion in 2022, up 2 percent from 2021. South Korea is the sixth largest export market for the United States, thanks in part to a successful free trade agreement (KORUS) between the two countries and a robust demand for high-quality U.S. food products.

Soybean imports are raised to a record 101 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 22/23 on surging imports, which reached 84.3 MMT through July.

FAS Bangkok (Post) expects soybean imports to rebound in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 and further increase to around 4 million metric tons in MY2023/24, driven by strong demand for poultry and swine feed.

Post forecasts Malaysian palm oil production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 at 18.85 million metric tons (MT), up 702,000 MT from the previous year as the labor situation continues to improve.

Indonesia palm oil production for 2023/24 is forecast at 46 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 3 percent from the previous year.