Browse Data and Analysis

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Côte d'Ivoire is one of the leading producers of palm oil in Africa, with annual production exceeding 500,000 metric tons since 2018. The country consumes over 75% of its palm oil production domestically, with palm oil being a staple for 90% of the population. The high domestic demand for palm oil outstrips supply, creating intense competition for fresh fruit bunches (FFB).

Due to higher input costs associated with planting corn, rice, and other crops, soybean and peanut production is expected to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Private sector investors are expanding oil palm production and increasing processing capacity to take advantage of strong demand and high prices.

Soybean imports are raised to a record 101 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 22/23 on surging imports, which reached 84.3 MMT through July.

Post forecasts MY2023/24 palm oil production up by 20 percent over the current marketing year’s estimate. Total domestic consumption is forecast marginally up, imports are expected to drop by 14 percent due to increased domestic production, but exports are forecast significantly up compared to the current marketing year’s estimate.

Despite being one of the largest oil palm-producing countries, Nigeria relies on imports to bridge its supply gap. Private sector investors are expanding oil palm production and increasing processing capacity to take advantage of the prevailing strong domestic and international market demand and high prices.

Côte d’Ivoire has become one of the major palm oil producers on the continent. Since 2018, the country has produced more than 500,000MT yearly. Currently, production is expected to increase 26 percent in MY2022/23 while demand outweighs supply.

China’s marketing year (MY) 22/23 soybean production is forecast to reach a near-record 19 million metric tons (MMT) on higher yields. Post maintains forecasted MY 22/23 soybean imports at 96.5 MMT on higher demand for soybean meal (SBM) for swine and poultry and vegetable oil demand for food sector use. Import growth is forecast to be partially constrained by higher domestic soybean production, ongoing sales of state reserve soybeans, and ongoing uncertainty regarding People’s Republic of China (PRC) COVID restrictions.

China’s slowing economy and COVID-related restrictions continue to weaken demand for oilseeds for feed and food use. Soybean imports for marketing year (MY) 21/22 and MY 22/23 are revised downward to 92 million metric tons (MMT) and 96.5 MMT, respectively, on weak demand for vegetable oil in the food service sector and soybean meal (SBM) in the swine and poultry sectors.

Nigeria continues to strive for self-sufficiency in oil palm production. Currently, production remains stable. Meanwhile, demand for palm oil outweighs supply. Nigeria meets the supply gap in oil palm through imports from Malaysia, China, and Côte d’Ivoire.