Browse Data and Analysis

Indonesia introduced a new, simplified set of export levies for palm oil products, effective September 21, 2024, amidst decreasing crude palm oil (CPO) exports due to competition from other edible oils. Most of the new levies for palm oil exports will be reduced to between 3 percent to 7.5 percent of the reference price which the Government of Indonesia sets monthly.

While the United States holds a 5-year average of less than 1 percent market share ($20.7 million in 2023 exports), Senegal has a growing food manufacturing industry that seeks cost-competitive ingredients and is expanding its exports to neighboring countries.

Indonesia palm oil exports are estimated to decline to 26.5 million metric tons (MMT) in 2023/24 on lower output and weaker demand from key destination markets. Post revised down 2023/24 palm oil production to 45.6 MMT as 2023’s El Nino led to much lower yields than previously anticipated.

Indonesia palm oil production is forecast to rise marginally to 47 million metric tons (MMT) in 2024/25 on expected recovery from extreme weather in 2023.

Post revised down Indonesia palm oil exports estimate to 27.9 million metric ton (MMT) on lower supplies, higher domestic use and expected reduced export demand for 2023/24. Palm oil use for the biodiesel industry is revised down to 12.3 MMT for 2023/24 on lower-than-expected biodiesel distribution in 2023.

Indonesia palm oil production for 2023/24 is forecast at 46 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of 3 percent from the previous year.

On February 6, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) announced it would suspend two-thirds of palm oil exports in order to shore up domestic cooking oil supplies ahead of Ramadan and Eid festivities.

Indonesia 2022/23 palm oil consumption is expected to rise to 19.4 million metric tons (MMT) on increased use for biodiesel production, as the Government of Indonesia (GOI) rolls out higher blending rates for its 2023 mandatory biodiesel blending program.

On larger than expected production loss related Indonesia’s palm oil export ban policy, Post revises down Indonesia palm oil production to 44.7 million ton (MMT) for 2022/23 and updates 2021/22 production to 43.2 MMT. Soybean imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 2.6 MMT on continued demand from tofu and tempeh producers.

Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down to 25.5 million metric tons (MMT) on restrictive export policies and weaker global demand. The soybean subsidy program launched in April 2022 unexpectedly caused several importers to slowdown purchases. Feed mill demand for soybean meal continues to drive imports from South American origins.