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Biblical rain in Kazakhstan’s major growing regions has cut wheat and barley production, reducing its quantity and quality.

Kazakhstan is expected to have a bumper crop following last year’s troubled production. After heavy rains and flooding in May 2024 delayed planting, Kazakhstan’s primary growing regions have had near perfect weather, greatly raising the outlook for the upcoming fall harvest.

Wheat production is expected to recover this marketing year as higher soil moisture raises yield. West and North Kazakhstan were impacted by heavy flooding, with the areas of Atyrau, Kostanay, and Almola most negatively affected.

Marketing year 2023/2024 wheat production is expected to drop sharply to around three-quarters of last year’s level as a result of the June drought and excessive rains in the fall of 2023 that affected Kazakhstan’s major grain producing Northern region.

According to government information releases and FAS-Astana contacts, spring grain planting was completed in early June and planting conditions were generally favorable, leading FAS-Astana to estimate no significant change to wheat and barley planted area in MY2023/2024.

FAS Astana estimates wheat production at 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. FAS Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for MY 2023/2024.

FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

FAS-Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023. After production declined due to hot and dry weather last MY, wheat production in MY 2022/2023 rebounded to an estimated 14.5 million metric tons (MMT).

FAS-Nur-Sultan forecasts no significant change to wheat planted area for MY2022/23. Producers in Kazakhstan's three main wheat producing regions reported no adverse weather events and precipitation has been generally more than last year, especially through June, although July precipitation in some areas has come in slightly lower.