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Due to the impact of the recent flooding, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is lowered to 8.3 million tons. With a slow-down in exports during July and August, plus the recent flooding causing a pause in export activities, marketing year 2021/22 rice exports are lowered to 4.5 million tons.

The weak southwest monsoon in first half of June 2022 slowed ongoing plantings of the kharif (fall harvested) season crops. Plantings will recover under adequate soil moisture conditions with the revival of monsoon starting the third week of June, along with expected normal precipitation in July. On July 6, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry notified authorizing the export of wheat flour and other products (Harmonized Tariff System - HS code 1101) only on the recommendation of Inter-Ministerial Committee on the Export of Wheat.

Based on the government’s international procurement intentions, the 2022/23 wheat import forecast is increased from 2.0 to 2.5 million tons (MMT). Due to water shortages in key producing areas during the early planting season, the rice production forecast for 2022/23 (November-October) is reduced from 9.0 to 8.6 MMT.