Browse Data and Analysis

The Dominican Republic, through its Ministry of Industry, Commerce and SME’s (MICM), announced the activation of the CAFTA-DR agricultural safeguard measure for imports of mozzarella cheese from the United States on May 22, 2024.

Milk production in Australia for 2024 is estimated to increase, for the first time since 2020, by 3.3 percent to 8.75 million metric tons (MMT). Industry confidence is elevated by high milk prices for dairy farmers over recent years and, also lower feed and fertilizer prices and broadly good seasonal conditions in 2024.

EU milk production in 2024 is forecast to fall slightly to 148.9 million metric tons (MMT), from an estimated 149.3 MMT in 2023 as a result of declining cow numbers and lower milk production profitability. With lower milk production, which will only be partially offset by lower expected fluid milk consumption, factory use consumption is also forecast to minimally decrease in 2024.

Post increased its estimate of raw milk production in 2024 due to a larger dairy cow inventory. Imports of fluid milk, whole milk powder (WMP), and skimmed milk powder (SMP) are estimated to all decline in 2024 due to higher domestic milk production.

Mexico’s milk, cheese, and butter production are forecast year on year growth of two percent in 2024. Dairy farmers are expected to mitigate the impacts of prolonged drought and heat conditions with previously stored forage, increased feed grain imports, and water storage mechanisms.

New Zealand fluid milk production is forecasted to be 21.2 million metric tons (MMT) in the 2024 market year (MY). This is a decrease on the previous 5-year average of ~21.6 MMT, reflecting the decreasing herd numbers and the short-term effects of the following: El Niño weather pattern, softening revenue, high cost of debt servicing, and challenging feed and fertilizer prices.

Vietnam offers abundant opportunities for exporting consumer-oriented products, despite the challenges of recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with high inflation. The Vietnamese economy is poised for significant expansion in the coming decades. With a burgeoning population and a growing middle class, Vietnamese consumers are becoming more discerning about the origin and composition of their food.

This monthly report includes information on U.S. and global imports of dairy products, including maximum quantities that can be imported under tariff-rate quota licensing.

Post forecasts that milk production in 2022 will reduce about five percent, to 23.7 million metric tons (MMT), while in 2023 it is expected to grow around 3.6 percent, reaching 24.5 MMT. Milk consumption in Brazil is expected to fall around four percent, but recover in 2023 by three percent.

The Bulgarian dairy industry faced significant challenges in Marketing Year (MY) 2021 with the national dairy herd, cow milk production and collection, as well as processing contracting. A dry and hot summer, combined with increasing feed grain prices, inflation pressure (especially of energy supply), and a labor deficit led to a decline in the number of dairy farms and stocks. Consolidation and restructuring of the industry continued through the dominating role of larger, more efficient dairy operations.

In 2023, dairy product imports are forecast to remain near 2022 levels but a number of factors, including high global dairy prices, increased domestic production, and a weak economic outlook could weigh heavily on trade. Raw milk production in 2023 is expected to reach nearly 41.7 million metric tons (MMT).

Brazil is the fourth-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural and processed products in South America and depends on international suppliers to meet its demand for food processing ingredients, especially specialty products with high added value. These products offer significant opportunities for U.S. companies to supply Brazilian food manufacturers looking to meet the needs of a growing health-conscious consumer market.