Browse Data and Analysis

Although Hungary regained its avian influenza-free status on July 3, 2024, the disease has returned.

Driven by strong internal demand, EU chicken meat production is expected to continue growing in 2024 and 2025. In 2025, Poland will remain the largest EU chicken meat producer, accounting for more than 22 percent of total EU production.

Chicken meat production for 2025 is forecast to hit a record after a below average performance the previous year. Most of the anticipated increase in production will go for domestic consumption, which continues to grow since chicken is expected to remain significantly cheaper than beef.

Ukrainian chicken meat production recovered in 2024 and is expected to continue its slow recovery in 2025, with total production still below the pre-full-scale invasion level. Ukraine’s largest producer, MHP SE, reports stable production at full capacity.

FAS/Sofia expects growth in Bulgarian poultry production in 2024, driven by declining feed/production costs and improving competitiveness, as well as by continued growth in consumer incomes, travel, and tourism.

According to a decision by the Ministry of Commerce, chicken meat exports, including whole chicken and its cuts, are limited to a maximum of 10,000 metric tons (MT) per month from May 1-December 31, 2024, and 80,000 MT in total by the end of the year.

Despite ongoing avian influenza outbreaks and increasing competition from imports, strong internal EU demand will drive chicken meat production in 2024.

Ukraine’s chicken meat production continued to recover in 2023, driven by low feed costs and stable energy supplies and macroeconomic environment. Facing lower world market poultry prices in the first three quarters of 2023, Ukrainian poultry producers concentrated on import replacement on the domestic market and exports to the European Union, under the tariff- and quota-free access granted to Ukraine in solidarity after Russia’s full-scale invasion.

On December 8, 2023, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) launched two calls for evidence to collect data and information to support EFSA’s risk assessments to deliver scientific opinions on the welfare of beef cattle and turkeys on farm.

Due to increased detections of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) virus H5N1 in wild birds, the Austrian authorities declared certain areas of Austria at greatly increased risk of AI.

Although Hungary regained its avian influenza free status on July 28, 2023, the disease has returned. In November 2023, animal health authorities confirmed primary outbreaks of the H5N1 strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in four counties.

Driven by strong internal demand, EU chicken meat production is expected to grow in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, Poland will be again the largest EU chicken producer, accounting for more than 20 percent of all EU chicken production.