Browse Data and Analysis

The National Health Commission (NHC) and the State Administration of Market Regulation (SAMR) published the National Food Safety Standard for “Sanitary Practices for The Production of Cooked Meat Products” (GB 19303-2023) on September 6, 2023.

Post forecasts 2025 chicken meat imports will be maintained at 190,000 metric tons (MT). Although chicken meat imports have been declining for years due to devaluation of the Angolan currency (kwanza), growing food price inflation, significant limitations on foreign exchange are expected to continue to repress imports, resulting in 2024 and 2025 reflecting the lowest level of consumption since 2016.

Post forecasts that chicken meat production will increase by three percent to 1.65 million tons in Marketing Year (MY) 2025 as a result of a strengthening domestic sector. Post raises the 2024 production estimate by 6 percent to 1.59 million tons as the industry has rebounded from the 2023 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak.

Post’s 2025 forecast for China’s chicken meat production and consumption are up slightly from 2024. Post forecasts chicken imports to decline in 2025 due to increased domestic production and constraints on major supplying countries.

Although extension of anti-dumping duties imposed on frozen bone-in poultry portions from the US would typically mean business as usual as these duties are rebated under the tariff rate quota, a current de-facto restriction on applying general tariff rebates to poultry imported under the TRQ makes the announcement more concerning than usual.

The Competition Commission of South Africa, and independent body under the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition announced the launch of a comprehensive market inquiry that will seek to determine if the South African poultry industry is impeding, distorting, or restricting competition in a way that violates the South African Competition Act.

Post’s 2024 forecast for China’s chicken meat production and consumption are modestly down from 2023. Production and consumption are both forecast lower year to year while trade volumes are flat for imports and exports, in comparison to official 2023 data.

Post forecasts Ghana’s MY2024 chicken meat imports at 270,000 metric tons (MT), unchanged from the preceding year’s estimate.

The Togolese government has temporarily banned poultry imports due to high quantities of unsold local chicken on the market.

On January 26, 2024, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition (DTIC) together with the International Trade Administration (ITAC) announced the decision to implement a 25 percent rebate on bone-in cuts and 30 percent rebate on boneless chicken of imported chicken.

Post forecasts 2024 imports will be fall by 4.5 percent to 210,000 metric tons (MT). Since the presidential elections in 2022, Angolan chicken meat imports have been decreasing due to devaluation of the Angolan currency (kwanza) and growing food price inflation.

The Animal Health Directorate in the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD) released a progress report on the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreak that was first detected in the Western Cape Province in April 2023.