Browse Data and Analysis

The Canadian cattle herd continues its sustained contraction in 2024. A smaller beef cow inventory will see the 2024 calf crop decline. Improved cattle prices may signal improved heifer retention if moisture conditions and pastures improve, or producers could see this as an opportune time to maximize exiting the industry during a time of better returns.

Lower feed prices are expected to boost producer profits in 2024, thereby increasing domestic beef and pork production. Beef imports are forecast to decrease, and pork imports are expected to remain nearly flat.

Following a gradual decline in the national cattle herd over the previous years, breeding cow numbers for beef and dairy are looking to stabilize in 2024. At the end of 2023, a new national coalition government was elected.

Australian beef supply is forecast to climb after the herd rebuild period ends. The marked slowdown in the growth of the national herd is expected to drive a higher female slaughter rate, increase the overall supply of cattle for slaughter, and boost live cattle and beef exports in 2024.

In 2023, Ukraine's cattle inventory and beef production remained on a three-decade-long downward trend. The decrease in consumer numbers and comparatively high beef prices resulted in a domestic consumption drop and increased exports of both live cattle for slaughter and beef.

Post forecasts economic headwinds will continue to impact consumption of both pork and beef in 2024. Swine and pork production in 2024 will be marginally down 3 percent as persistently low live hog and pork prices weigh on producers.

FAS/Tokyo projects Japan’s beef production in 2024 will be almost flat from 2023 because fewer cows will be culled now that milk production has dropped enough to match demand.

While EU beef production is forecast to further decline in 2024 due to a structural unprofitability of the sector and mounting environmental regulations, the EU pork supply is projected to rebound in 2024.

Argentine beef exports in 2024 are projected up at 920,000 tons carcass weight equivalent, 20,000 tons higher than USDA official.

Brazil is currently at the bottom of the cattle cycle, liquidating inventories since 2023. The oversupply of cattle for slaughter has led to a slow price recovery and longer-term impact to the replacement market.

In 2022, the Egyptian government announced that feed costs increased by 40 to 45 percent. Beef prices also increased by 15 to 20 percent, discouraging per capita consumption. Prices are expected to continue increasing in response to the ongoing devaluation of the Egyptian pound and complex import procedures. Imports of Indian water buffalo increased to reach 150 thousand MT, while Brazilian beef imports are still limited.

On October 27, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a new order pertaining to FSSAI Order F. No. 1829/Health Certificate/ FSSAI/Imports (2021), which extends the effective compliance date. The new effective compliance date is now set for January 1, 2023 (the previous effective compliance date was November 1, 2022).