Browse Data and Analysis

After the 2023 outbreak of bluetongue disease in Europe, the bluetongue virus (BTV-3) has now spread to three Nordic countries. Denmark encountered the first case of bluetongue disease on August 9, Norway on September 6, and Sweden on September 12.

In 2025, Ukraine’s fluid milk production will decrease slightly due to growth in the size and productivity of industrial farms, despite a larger decrease in dairy cow inventory.

Milk production in Brazil for 2024 is expected to increase by 1 percent to 25 million metric tons (MMT) and to increase again in 2025 to 25.4 MMT.

EU milk production in 2025 is forecast to decline marginally to 149.4 million metric tons (MMT), from an estimated 149.6 MMT in 2024, as a result of declining cow numbers, tight dairy farmer margins, environmental regulations, and disease outbreaks.

Although Hungary regained its avian influenza-free status on July 3, 2024, the disease has returned.

Brazil is the second-largest chicken meat producer in the world after the United States and the largest chicken meat exporter in the world. Post forecasts chicken meat production will increase one percent in 2025 due to high external demand, socio-economic performance, and improved costs of production.

Post expects livestock numbers and beef production to continue their decrease through 2025. Beef production efficiency remains low, with the majority of beef derived from dairy and dual-purpose animals.

Both EU beef and pork production, as well as exports, are forecast to temporarily increase this year. Beef production will increase because of high carcass and beef prices combined with an overall dim outlook for the sector, incentivizing farmers to slaughter their cattle.

Driven by strong internal demand, EU chicken meat production is expected to continue growing in 2024 and 2025. In 2025, Poland will remain the largest EU chicken meat producer, accounting for more than 22 percent of total EU production.

Chicken meat production for 2025 is forecast to hit a record after a below average performance the previous year. Most of the anticipated increase in production will go for domestic consumption, which continues to grow since chicken is expected to remain significantly cheaper than beef.

Brazil is the third-largest cattle producer and second-largest beef exporter in the world. Post forecasts decreased slaughter in 2025, due to the forecasted start of the reversion of the cattle cycle. Producers are likely to start retaining cattle in 2025, driving calf prices upwards.

On August 21, 2024, the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) of the People's Republic of China (PRC) announced that it had initiated an anti-subsidy (i.e., countervailing duty or CVD) investigation on imports of certain dairy products originating from the European Union.