Browse Data and Analysis

Post forecasts that milk production in 2022 will reduce about five percent, to 23.7 million metric tons (MMT), while in 2023 it is expected to grow around 3.6 percent, reaching 24.5 MMT. Milk consumption in Brazil is expected to fall around four percent, but recover in 2023 by three percent.

In July 2021, authorities detected African Swine Fever (ASF) in the Dominican Republic (DR). The disease, which rapidly spread throughout the country, crippled local swine production, but boosted export opportunities for U.S. swine meat producers to the Dominican market.

The Government of Nicaragua has refused to issue import permits or has rejected shipments of U.S. poultry products – including raw frozen cuts, fully cooked products, and day-old chicks – from U.S. states where high pathogenicity avian influenza cases have been reported.

The federal government announced that dairy, poultry and egg farmers and processors will receive CAD $1.7 billion dollars in compensation for impacts of the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement (USMCA). This funding will be disbursed over six years, as direct payments and various investment programs, with the largest share going to the dairy sector.

Brazil is the fourth-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural and processed products in South America and depends on international suppliers to meet its demand for food processing ingredients, especially specialty products with high added value. These products offer significant opportunities for U.S. companies to supply Brazilian food manufacturers looking to meet the needs of a growing health-conscious consumer market.

The Dominican Republic (DR) continues to ban and/or restrict U.S. poultry exports from states with any type of detection of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), regardless of the outbreak being reported as poultry or non-poultry.

FAS/Canada projects modest growth for milk and cheese production in 2023, as consumption remains stable, and the market is partially supplied by rising import volumes following implementation of Canada’s various trade agreements. Butter production is forecast to grow in 2023, as stocks remain low, depleted by sustained strong consumption.

Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

Even as Mexico's consumers face high core and food inflation, post sees both overall dairy production and imports rising in 2023. Mexico’s milk and cheese production is forecast to rise in 2023 due to increased investments in dairy operations in key producing areas.

In marketing year (MY) 2022, rainfall during the winter was abundant favoring pasture production in the southern regions of Los Lagos and Los Rios. As a result, Chilean production of milk powders increased significantly in recent months, and are expected to remain high during the remainder of the marketing year.

Although exports of poultry to the Dominican Republic are on pace to set historic records in 2022, the United States continues to lose export market share from Brazil. As of June, 2022, the United States has accounted for 56 percent (22,074 MT) of total poultry exports to the DR (64,392 MT); Brazil has accounted for 44 percent (17,429 MT) of those exports after only accounting for 25 percent in 2021 and 0 percent in 2020 and prior.

2022 Argentine dairy production is projected at the same level with respect to 2021 or with a drop of less than one percent year-on-year to 11.495,000 MT, due to abnormally dry and warm weather during the first half of the year which is expected to continue until the end of the year. Post forecasts Whole Milk Powder (WMP) production to rise to 245,000 MT in a recessionary domestic market with stable production compared to 2021, which would result in a higher export balance.