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The Burmese military regime is intervening in the rice market to control higher prices. The regime detained dozens of domestic and foreign rice merchants and representatives from supermarkets and has pledged to prosecute traders who were selling rice...

Exporters and importers continue to face much uncertainty due to the military regime’s foreign currency control policies and continuing conflict between the regime and ethnic armed forces. FAS Rangoon forecasts Burma’s MY 2024/25 rice exports to recover to 1.7 MMT amid high stocks and expected relaxation of export controls. MY 2024/25 corn exports and wheat imports will remain flat.

In MY 2024/25, Post forecasts imports by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) of all wheat, rice, corn, and barley to increase to meet high local demand. Strong tourism, population growth, and expanding poultry and dairy sectors will drive this demand.

FAS Rangoon (Post) forecasts Burma’s rice exports, corn exports, and wheat import smaller in MY 2023/24. Exporters and importers continue to face a lot of uncertainties with the continuing changing policies on export/import procedures and foreign currency controls.

Strong tourism, high petroleum rents, and an accompanying economic boom in the United Arab Emirates are forecast to grow the consumptive base and drive imports of wheat and rice higher in the coming marketing year.

FAS Rangoon forecasts Burma’s corn production lower due to rising production costs, unstable security conditions in some production areas, and unfavorable weather especially in Shan State.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports lower in November. Despite the contracted shipment to Bangladesh, slow demand from African countries and high domestic prices will lead to lower exports in November. Domestic prices for Emata increased in November as local traders are purchasing stock in anticipation of a lower production. Prices for Shwe Bo Pawson also remained high.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports higher in October. Despite low demand from African countries, there is high demand from Bangladesh and China. Domestic prices for both Emata and Shwe Bo Pawsan declined in October as supplies from the new rice crop enter the market and the Myanmar kyat appreciated against the U.S. dollar.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports higher in September with increasing demand for Burmese rice due to India’s policies restricting rice exports. Despite larger domestic rice supplies from the new rice crop, domestic prices for both Emata and Shwe Bo Pawsan rose significantly. The depreciation of the Myanmar kyat and high production costs have continued putting upward pressure on domestic rice prices.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports lower in August due to fewer supplies in the domestic market, higher domestic prices, lower anticipated production, and changes to foreign currency policies. Domestic prices for both Emata and Shwe Bo Pawsan rose significantly.

Post forecasts Burmese rice exports lower in July due to reduced domestic supplies and higher domestic prices. Domestic prices for Emata remained high, while prices for Shwe Bo Pawsan rose due to lower domestic supplies.

UAE’s overall economic recovery will boost consumption and imports of grain and feed in MY 2022/23. The Ukraine conflict and other factors contributing to high commodity prices and food security may put downward pressure on UAE consumption in MY 2021/22.