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For marketing year 2022/2023, Post forecasts cotton production at 155 thousand bales and imports at 8.9 million bales. Indian cotton took 29 percent market share in calendar year (CY) 2021, followed by Brazil, Benin, and the United States. In CY 2021...

On April 13, 2022, the Government of India rescinded its cotton import duty of 10 percent until September 30, 2022. This import duty consists of a five percent basic customs duty and a five percent Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC), which has been reversed to “Nil” until the end of the Indian cotton marketing year (October/September).

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

On March 31, 2022, the European Commission (EC) approved three genetically engineered (GE) crops (1 soybean, 1 rapeseed, and 1 cotton) and renewed the authorization for 1 cotton crop for food and feed imports. The three authorizations and one renewal were published in the European Union’s Official Journal on April 4 and 7, 2022, and they remain valid for 10 years.

Post forecasts market year (MY) 2022/23 cotton fiber production at 990,000 bales (480 lb.) The MY 2021/22 estimate for exports is unchanged at 1.1 million bales. MY 2022/23 export projection is 1 million bales, assuming the entire national production is exported. Annual consumption is stable at 20,000 bales.

Declining cases of COVID-19 globally and domestically are expected to increase overall demand for textile and textile products. Therefore, following an 8.2 percent decline in 2020/21, cotton imports are expected rebound by 12.7 percent to 2.6 million bales in 2021/22.

Higher downstream demand for textiles and garments and reduced cotton yarn imports are expected to raise spinning demand for cotton in marketing year (MY) 22/23, lifting cotton imports to an estimated 2.3 million metric tons (MMT).

FAS Bangkok (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/23 cotton imports slightly larger than MY2021/22 in line with the global economic recovery and anticipated rising demand from key foreign trade partners. There has been a significant increase of imported cotton in MY2021/22 due to foreign customers’ pent-up demand for both textile and garment products from the previous years.

Despite ongoing high demand, Post estimates that U.S. cotton exports to Vietnam will decline by 25 percent in marketing year (MY) 21/22 due to price volatility, ongoing logistical challenges, and tough competition from Australia. Post forecasts Vietnam cotton imports for MY22/23 will increase 5 percent to approximately 8.2 million bales or about 1.78 million metric tons (MMT).

Turkey’s cotton production in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast to increase to 925,000 metric tons (MT) (4.2 million bales) based on the assumption that farmers will plant more cotton in response to strong cotton prices. Growing demand for textiles and apparel is expected to push MY 2022/23 cotton consumption higher to 1.9 million MT (8.7 million bales).

The drought in Andalucía is anticipated to drive down area planted to cotton in Spain in MY2022/23. However, cotton crop area is highly inelastic given the few alternative crops available, and the fact that a significant part of the CAP payment to cotton continues to be linked to production partially offsets the potential area reduction.

Cotton production in Australia is primed to set a new record of 6 million bales in MY 2022/23, after a bumper harvest estimate of 5.5 million bales in MY 2021/22. This forecast is due to the strong prospect of increased irrigation water availability at the start of planting in October 2022 along with current high cotton prices and strong futures prices.