Browse Data and Analysis

Improved weather forecasts are expected to lead to recoveries in grain production in Argentina. However, continued dry conditions are projected to limit planting of wheat and rice.

The wheat and barley harvest continues toward conclusion in Turkey, with a surprisingly better performance than expected after generous spring rains following a historic winter drought.

The recovery of the 2023 southwest monsoon from third week of June and forecasted normal precipitation in July will support ongoing planting of kharif (fall harvested) season crops.

Wheat area rose to its highest level since 2001, at the expense of oats, rye, mixed grains, and lentils. Export volumes of wheat grain year-to-date (August to May) are up 78 percent over the same time last year, and wheat products (in grain equivalent) are up 21 percent.

According to government information releases and FAS-Astana contacts, spring grain planting was completed in early June and planting conditions were generally favorable, leading FAS-Astana to estimate no significant change to wheat and barley planted area in MY2023/2024.

Sensory data shows another below average wheat crop in MY2023/24 due to ongoing drought and heat conditions in Algeria’s non-irrigated areas. Post forecasts MY2023/24 wheat imports at 8.7 million metric tons based on increased import demand.

There are no changes to rice and corn production and imports, nor wheat imports for MY 2023/24.

FAS Sofia updates its forecasts for Bulgarian production of grain crops in marketing year (MY)2023/24 to 10.5 million metric tons (MMT), based on improving prospects for average yields for wheat, barley, and corn.

Post forecasts that, despite recent heavy rainfall in major producing provinces that has impacted quality, total wheat production in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will be comparable in quantity to the previous year due to higher area planted and harvest completion in June.

With Brazil continuing to produce record corn crops, Post forecasts corn production for MY 2023/24 at 131 MMT, up 1.6 percent from the current season. However, falling profit margins and ongoing infrastructure and logistics hurdles may impact the next harvest’s outcome.

The wheat planting area for MY2023/24 is estimated at 725,000 HA, some 17 percent higher than previous marketing year. Overall production is estimated to be 3.6 MMT, which represents a 12.5 increase compared to MY2022/23.

Based on the Government of Pakistan’s (GOP) first official assessment, the 2023/24 wheat production forecast is increased to a record 28.0 million tons.