Browse Data and Analysis

This report contains Post’s production estimates for marketing year (MY) 2022/23, as well as final export numbers for MY2021/22. Production is down sharply as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the impact on agriculture. Domestic consumption for all grains (both feed and food) went down as a combination of migration out of the country, decreased disposable incomes, and destroyed animal production facilities in the areas of military activity.

Saudi Arabia’s barley imports for the first six months of MY 2022/23 (July – Dec. 2022) are estimated at 2.6 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of six percent compared to the same period last year. Post’s current projection for total barley imports for MY 2022/23 is 4.5 MMT, which is a decrease of four percent compared to the USDA official estimate of 4.7 MMT. Unless the price of barley drastically decreases, Post anticipates demand will remain low throughout MY 2022/23.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

FAS-Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023. After production declined due to hot and dry weather last MY, wheat production in MY 2022/2023 rebounded to an estimated 14.5 million metric tons (MMT).

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Australia is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. After another strong start to the planting season followed up by great rainfalls, there is ample moisture to carry the wheat and barley crops through the grain fill stage.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Bulgaria expects to harvest a corn crop of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), 18 percent lower than in MY 2021/22. The decrease can be attributed to nine percent decline in area planted, yields severely impacted by the summer drought and heat, and higher pest infestation.

Post forecasts China's MY2022/23 feed and residual to decrease one percent from MY2021/22. Corn production for MY2022/23 is forecast at 270 MMT, 4 MMT lower than USDA’s official forecast and 2.5 MMT lower than MY2021/22 due to lower planting area and yield losses caused by excessive rains in the northeast.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2022/23 wheat and rice production in Japan to decrease from last year's bumper crop due to poor weather conditions in major production regions. Due to favorable weather, Post estimates the MY2022/23 barley crop to increase from MY2021/22.

The Government of Morocco has released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2022 crop, including 1.89 MMT of common wheat, 0.81 MMT of durum wheat, and 0.7 MMT of barley. The MY2022/23 wheat and barley harvest was down 67 percent compared to previous season due to severe drought.