Browse Data and Analysis

Total EU27 sugar production for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 16 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of 330,000 metric tons (MT) from MY 2021/22. This is the fifth consecutive year that the EU internal sugar production cannot meet domestic sugar consumption.

Brazil’s Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 sugarcane crop is estimated at 621 million metric tons (MMT), an increase of eight percent compared to the final estimate for MY 2021/22 (576 MMT), supported by better weather conditions vis-à-vis the previous year. Sugar prices remain attractive and sugar-ethanol plants have focused on sugar production as opposed to ethanol. Brazilian exports for MY 2022/23 are estimated at 28.2 MMT, raw value, an increase of 2.25 MMT relative to the previous season.

For Marketing Year October 2022/September 2023 (MY 2022/23), Post forecasts overall sugar production in the Dominican Republic (DR) to increase to 630,000 metric tons (MT) due to favorable weather conditions. During MY 2021/22, total sugar production reached 625,391 MT, a 2 percent increase from MY 2020/21 due to favorable rainfall patterns that improved agricultural yields.

FAS Manila adjusted marketing year (MY) 2023 raw sugar production down to 1.85 million metric tons (MT). The weather disturbances and low fertilizer application due to soaring fertilizer prices drastically affected sugarcane production in the Philippines.

Post estimates that the South African sugar cane crop will grow by 7 percent to 18.4 million metric tons (MT) in the 2022/23 market year (MY), up from 17.2 million MT in the 2021/22 MY. This is based on a return to normal weather conditions, an improvement in yields, and industry efforts to increase production, especially for small-scale farmers.

The 2022/2023 sugarcane harvested area is slightly reduced due to the impacts of the recent flooding in key production areas. As a result, the 2022/23 cane sugar production forecast is lowered to 7 million tons. Despite the slight decline in output expected, there will still be an exportable surplus, and the 2022/23 export forecast remains 1 million tons.

Turkey’s sugar beet production is forecast at 21.5 million metric tons (MMT) in MY 2022/23 and is expected to result in 3.05 MMT of sugar. The quotas for MY 2022/23 were announced on March 20, 2022 by a presidential decree as 2.68 MMT for sugar beets and 68.75 MT for starch-based sugar. On May 27, 2022, the tariff quota for sugar imports was released via communiqué as 400,000 MT

FAS/Canberra’s sugar cane production estimate for Australia is revised up for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 to 33 million metric tons (MMT), with the major production areas receiving well above-average rains during harvest which has promoted greater sugar cane growth.

Sugar production and exports are projected slightly up in marketing year (MY) 2023 (October 2022 to September 2023) because of the increase in productivity yields, harvested area, additional investments in the sugar sector and increased exports as the Honduran Sugar Industry recovers from the impact of hurricanes ETA and IOTA in November 2020.

The MY 2022/23 sugar production forecast is down 23 percent from the previous estimate. Producers face a shrinking domestic market and fluctuating world prices, as well as the strain of conflict with Russia in terms of ensuring production and exports.

On May 24, 2022, India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry/Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued notification No. 10/2015-20, amending its sugar export policy. The notification specifies that exports of raw, refined, and white sugar fall under the “restricted” category.

Nigeria’s current 10-year Sugar Master Plan (NSMP) will end next year – likely moving on to another 10-year Phase Two Plan. The growth in sugar consumption is expected to be driven by the food processing sector.