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Only limited growth in soybean and vegetable oil imports is forecast for 2021/22. Rising prices and changes in taxation policies are hindering demand for meal from the poultry sector and capping growth in edible oil demand.

Indonesia kicked off 2022 by rolling out several market intervention policies in response to recent rising prices for cooking oil. From January 19-31, 2022, Indonesia implemented a temporary cooking oil subsidy program utilizing the Crude Palm Oil (CPO) fund, the same funding source that subsidizes the biodiesel mandate program.

Post lowered its 2021/22 forecast for soybean planted area to 40.4 million hectares (ha) and soybean production to 136 million metric tons (MMT). This season sowing began optimistically, with most soybeans planted on time compared to last year.

Despite initial favorable conditions, Argentine oilseed crops have faced warm and dry weather across most growing regions since mid-December. Rains are needed soon to forestall more significant yield reductions. Post reduces its projected Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 soybean production to 46.5 million metric tons (MMT), 3 MMT below USDA Official.

Post revised its MY 2021/22 crude palm oil (CPO) production downward from 18.2 million tons to 18.0 million tons, taking into account the effect of anomalous weather from the super typhoon Rai (a month of rain recorded in one day on December 18 in Peninsular Malaysia) and the continuing acute labor issue the industry has faced since 2019.

On December 10, 2021, the Government of Kenya announced it would grant exemptions to tariffs on non-genetically-modified (GM) feed ingredients in response to rising feed costs.

India’s soybean production estimate for marketing year (2020/2021 is revised upward to 11.8 million metric tons on account of higher acreage and better than expected yields.

Indonesia extended its B30 mandate, which requires biodiesel to contain 30 percent palm oil-based fuel, to 2022. Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are forecast to increase 13 percent and soybean meal imports are estimated higher than previously expected.

FAS Sofia adjusts upwards Bulgarian rapeseed production in marketing (MY) 2021/22 to 376,000 metric tons (MT), 35 percent higher than in the previous season, as per the final harvest results.

China’s soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 20/21 hit a record 99.8 million metric tons (MMT) on high feed demand in the swine and poultry sectors.

Post lowers its MY 2021/22 projected planted area for soybeans to 17.0 million hectares. This reduction of 500,000 hectares will translate to total projected production of 49.7 million metric tons, 2.3 million metric tons below the USDA Official estimate.

Post is adjusting its MY 2021/22 crude palm oil (CPO) production forecast down 1.5 million metric tons (MT) from the USDA Official estimate to 18.2 million MT.