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Fluid milk production will be up slightly in 2023 as a greater number of heifers enter milk production. Demand for dairy products in the hotel, restaurant, and institutional food service industries will be pushed by an influx of foreign tourists, although surplus drinking milk will still be diverted to further processing into butter and non-fat dry milk for which ending stocks will finish higher in 2022.

Taiwan MY 2023 fluid milk production is forecast to increase to 465,000 MT. During the supply chain disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, milk imports declined by 17 percent in MY 2021, pushing local producers to exceed production expectations to meet high demand.

After an EU-wide drought in 2022, the EU27 dairy herd is forecast to drop below 20 million head in 2023. This will lead to a continued decrease in milk production and deliveries for factory use despite higher farm gate milk prices. As EU dairy processors continue to favor cheese production, the decrease in milk deliveries will be at the expense of butter and non-fat dry milk (NFDM), and, to a lower extent, lower whole milk powder (WMP) production, despite high world market prices.

In marketing year (MY) 2022, rainfall during the winter was abundant favoring pasture production in the southern regions of Los Lagos and Los Rios. As a result, Chilean production of milk powders increased significantly in recent months, and are expected to remain high during the remainder of the marketing year.

FAS Manila forecasts demand for dairy products to increase 3 percent in 2023, the same percentage of increase as 2022, with a total demand of 3 million metric tons (MT) in liquid milk equivalent (LME). The Philippines imports 99 percent of its dairy requirement, as domestic production cannot meet demand. Following demand increases, dairy imports will recover in 2023 as the economy improves, most of the population is vaccinated, and customers return to restaurants.

On September 26, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a clarification notice to its earlier notification F. No. 1829/Health Certificate/FSSAI/Imports (2021). The FSSAI clarification notice is in response to World Trade Organization (WTO) members having commented on the FSSAI Order of August 8, 2022, referencing the earlier FSSAI Notification No. 1829/Health Certificate/FSSAI/Imports (2021), that specify the requirements for health certificates and their format for milk and milk products, pork and pork products, and fish and fish products.

The Philippines supplies only one percent of its total dairy requirement, which makes it a competitive market for imported dairy products. The United States and New Zealand are the top two suppliers, the U.S. being the leader. Post sees overall dairy imports recovering in 2022, as the economy reopens, most of the population becomes vaccinated, and business operations expand, all of which will accelerate dairy consumption.

On September 30th, in a revision to its January announcement, Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries affirmed that it will increase the tariff-rate quota volumes for butter to 9,788 MT but will hold non-fat dry milk (NFDM) at 750 MT for Japanese fiscal year (JFY) 2021. Total planned imports are estimated to be about 137,000 MT (milk equivalent).

2022 Argentine dairy production is projected at the same level with respect to 2021 or with a drop of less than one percent year-on-year to 11.495,000 MT, due to abnormally dry and warm weather during the first half of the year which is expected to continue until the end of the year. Post forecasts Whole Milk Powder (WMP) production to rise to 245,000 MT in a recessionary domestic market with stable production compared to 2021, which would result in a higher export balance.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the percentage of exported agricultural production for 25 top commodities.

Malaysia was the 25th largest export destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2021 and is a top prospect for exports of food and beverage ingredients because of its large and growing food processing industry. Food and beverages manufactured in Malaysia not only serve domestic consumers but are also exported to many neighboring countries. U.S. exporters of dairy products, fresh and processed potatoes, food-grade soy, processed fruit and juices, tree nuts and more have many opportunities to supply Malaysian industry which depends on imports for key ingredients and inputs, and in doing so will reach consumers across Malaysia and throughout Southeast Asia.

Many Turkish cattle farmers are struggling to make ends meet because input costs, especially feed, are increasing at a faster pace than farmgate prices for carcass meat and milk. As a result, many farmers are cutting their losses and sending their animals to slaughter earlier than normal. This trend is expected to continue into 2023 as economic conditions in the country remain bleak.