Browse Data and Analysis

FAS-Astana estimates Kazakhstan’s wheat production reached 16.4 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023, which is the largest production volume since MY 2017/2018. In addition to wheat, barley production also recovered due to favorable weather and precipitation conditions in northern grain producing regions.

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 6.2 million tons (including wheat flour), 1.3 million tons lower than USDA’s official volume because of smaller beginning stocks, larger domestic consumption and larger ending stocks.

New Zealand grain and feed import volumes in 2022 rose to the highest level ever, importing 3.7 million metric tons (MMT), up 13 percent from the previous year. National grain and feed demand continues to outstrip domestic supply by nearly double, with New Zealand producing 2.1 MMT in 2022, but consuming an estimated 5.8 MMT.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains its forecast wheat production at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT. Post forecasts MY 2022/23 barley imports at 772 thousand metric tons, in line with the import volume seen last year.

Corn, rice, and sorghum production forecasts are revised downward in marketing year MY 2022/23, while the wheat production estimate is increased to 3.6 MMT.

Australia is set for a third consecutive record grain crop, and strong exports. Wheat production is estimated to have reached a record 37 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2022/23, while barley is estimated to achieve 13.5 MMT of production, the fourth largest on record.

Turkey’s production of wheat, corn, barley and rice in MY 2022/23 are all forecast higher compared to the previous year.

Corn production in MY2022/23 is revised up slightly based on National Bureau of Statistics data indicating a better harvest in the North China Plain which more than offset smaller yields in the northeast.

U.S. agricultural exports to China in fiscal year (FY) 2022 were $36.4 billion and surpassed the previous year’s record with China as the largest export market for the second consecutive year. Significantly higher agricultural prices and resilient demand helped drive exports above the previous year’s record despite lower volumes for most products.

FAS Manila maintains MY 2022/23 milled rice production at 11.975 million MT, as previously stated conditions such as diminished fertilizer application still hold. FAS Manila estimates rice imports at 3.8 million MT in response to recent trade data. FAS Manila estimates wheat imports at 5.8 million MT because of high prices and industry contacts’ observations that consumers have limited purchasing power.

This report is intended to capture the estimated changes in the trade of major grains for marketing year (MY)2022/23 resulting from the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative for the next 120 days at the end of November 2022. MY2022/23 corn production estimates were updated as well.

Warm and dry summer conditions have taken a toll on EU grain production projections, especially in the case of corn. On a positive note, a surge in corn imports originating from Brazil and Ukraine, with the recent four-month extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, have increased predictability of the EU grain market balance.