Browse Data and Analysis

This report gives an overview of the Italian food retail and distribution sectors and outlines current market trends, including best product prospects. Italy’s food retail sales reached $167.8 billion in 2021, a 2.9 percent increase compared to 2020 in spite of the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. Increased sales were registered at discount stores (+6.0 percent), hypermarkets (+3.4 percent), supermarkets (+3.3 percent), grocery retailers (+1.2 percent), and convenience stores (+1.2 percent).

For marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Post revises its estimates for fresh lemon production to 1.90 million metric tons (MMT), up by 15 percent, due to favorable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to increase to 400,000 MT.

The prevailing extraordinary factors make it difficult to estimate exports for the rest of the year and the coming year. Other factors have been added to the recurrent volatility of the international dairy market.

For Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22, Post forecasts that fresh deciduous fruit production is estimated to decrease by 7 percent, due to unexpected frost that affected the crops at beginning of October 2021. Some producers had active frost defenses in place and were less affected, while others experienced serious crop losses.

Argentine sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 is forecast at 1.71 million tons, raw value, practically unchanged from the previous year. La Niña weather conditions have limited sugarcane production over the last two years, and output was affected by a severe winter last year and a very dry and hot summer early this year.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23 Post projects a recovery in Argentine soybean planted acreage to 17 million hectares (HA) resulting in 51 million metric tons (MMT) of soybean production as farmers shift acreage out of cereal crops that require more fertilizer. MY 2022/23 sunflowerseed planted acreage is projected up at 2 million HA, with total production estimated at 4 MMT in response to high prices.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.

Chile remains the largest South American consumer-oriented market for U.S. exporters. Increasing wealth, lower barriers to entry, and the modern Chilean economy present opportunities for increased agricultural trade as COVID-19 restrictions and social-political tensions ease.

The Italian food-processing industry continues to be highly fragmented, characterized by a growing consolidation of smaller companies. The leading players tend to employ multichannel strategies, which have helped them to offset food service losses with higher sales in the retail channel during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Argentine beef exports in 2022 are forecast at 700,000 tons, carcass weight equivalent, 30,000 tons below the official USDA number. This number is as the result of a marginally smaller slaughter and beef production than earlier projected.

Post reduces its MY 2021/2022 soybean production estimate to 41 million metric tons (MMT), 4 MMT below the official USDA estimate. Despite rains in January which forestalled greater losses, high temperatures and dryness in December and early January caused considerable damage in key growing areas and depleted soil moisture reserves.

Wheat production in marketing year (MY) 2021/2022 is estimated at a record 21.8 million tons, 1.3 million tons higher than the official USDA number. In consequence, exports are increased to 15.2 million tons (including flour in its wheat equivalent).