Browse Data and Analysis

On October 27, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a new order pertaining to FSSAI Order F. No. 1829/Health Certificate/ FSSAI/Imports (2021), which extends the effective compliance date. The new effective compliance date is now set for January 1, 2023 (the previous effective compliance date was November 1, 2022).

Since September 8, 2022, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) National Development Reform Commission (NDRC) has auctioned 127,100 metric tons (MT) of frozen pork reserves as an attempt to curb rising prices. However, despite numerous auctions and other PRC market guidance, domestic prices continue to rise.

Post forecasts an increase in cattle production by 2.8 percent in 2022 and one percent in 2023, driven by global demand, elevated beef prices, and a general trend of expansion in the sector. Nevertheless, increasing production costs, especially feed prices, inflation, and unstable weather are expected to pose challenges to cattle ranchers.

On September 26, 2022, the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare/Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) issued a clarification notice to its earlier notification F. No. 1829/Health Certificate/FSSAI/Imports (2021). The FSSAI clarification notice is in response to World Trade Organization (WTO) members having commented on the FSSAI Order of August 8, 2022, referencing the earlier FSSAI Notification No. 1829/Health Certificate/FSSAI/Imports (2021), that specify the requirements for health certificates and their format for milk and milk products, pork and pork products, and fish and fish products.

Both cattle and swine numbers are expected to decrease significantly in 2022, driven by the war-related economic downturn. Pork production is expected to show a decrease, while 2022 beef production is expected to show a short-term spike. Production of both proteins is expected to drop in 2023.

FAS/Tokyo projects 2023 cattle stocks to expand to 3.995 million metric tons (MT) following increased production in 2021 and 2022. In the dairy sector, cow slaughter continues to increase in 2022 to adjust for excess capacity and overproduction of milk. FAS/Tokyo forecasts 2023 beef production to remain flat from 2022 at 490,000 MT.

Further contraction in the Canadian herd is forecast in 2023 driven by lingering impacts from the 2021 drought. A smaller cow herd will result in a reduced calf crop and lower beef production compared to 2022.

Total meat consumption in Venezuela has declined 68.9 percent since 2013 as a result of the economic collapse. However, a better economic environment since 2019 has led to a stabilization of beef production and significant growth in chicken production. In 2022, beef production is forecast to grow 5 percent from 2021 to 287,803 MT.

Forced by record high feed and energy prices and tightening environmental restrictions, EU cattle and swine farmers are scaling back production. High carcass prices have encouraged cattle farmers to advance the slaughter of their herds, but lower slaughter weights will put pressure on overall beef production this year.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the percentage of exported agricultural production for 25 top commodities.

Australian beef supply is forecast to make a substantial step towards recovery in 2023 after falling to the lowest level in decades in 2021 and generating only a marginal improvement in 2022. The Australian cattle industry is expected to continue its strong herd rebuild in 2023 but with female slaughter rates rising.

In 2023, imports of breeding swine and pork are expected to decline to 5,000 head and 1.85 million metric tons (MMT), respectively, due to lower domestic hog and pork prices. Consumer price sensitivity and competition among producers are expected to constrain pork and hog price increases, squeezing margins. Strong carryover stocks of beef cattle from 2022 into 2023 will support an increase in cattle and beef production to 52.575 million head and 7.4 MMT, respectively.