Browse Data and Analysis

According to the Argentine government, farmers sold a record volume of soybeans, more than 13.7 million metric tons (MMT) in September, after the government offered a special exchange rate for producers. As a result, exporters booked nearly 4 MMT in export declarations, with China as the principal destination.

Argentine cattle stock, cattle slaughter, beef production, consumption and export volumes are all forecast to remain practically unchanged in 2023. China is expected to continue as the main export destination, potentially accounting for more than 70 percent of the 770,000 tons carcass weight equivalent (CWE) projected exports. Despite strong global beef demand and good prices, current, government imposed, export restrictions are projected to prevent Argentina from shipping larger volumes.

Post projects 2023 Argentine chicken meat production at 2.38 million metric tons, up very slightly from 2022 levels, while 2023 exports are projected at 190,000 tons, up 4 percent from 2022. Argentine exporters have gained new export opportunities as a result of trade disruptions stemming from the conflict in Ukraine, and these gains are expected to be maintained in the short term.

Argentine bioethanol consumption for 2022 is forecast at a record 1.1 billion liters due to the combination of increased gasoline demand and a higher blend rate, close to the maximum official blend rate. Biodiesel production in 2022 is projected to...

Wheat exports for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 are forecast at 12.35 million tons, l.15 million tons lower than USDA’s official number as a result of lower production. The wheat and barley crops are suffering very dry weather. Barley exports in MY 2022-2023 are forecast at 3.7 million tons, the same as in MY 2021-2022.

Argentina’s raisin production is forecast to remain stable in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 at 44,500 metric tons (MT). During December, crops suffered some negative effects from hale and strong winds, but managed to resiliently overcome these weather events. Exports are forecast at 39,000 MT, with Brazil as the primary destination, accounting for 70 percent of the Argentine exports.

For marketing year (MY) 2021/22, Post revises its estimates for fresh lemon production to 1.90 million metric tons (MMT), up by 15 percent, due to favorable weather conditions. Fresh orange production is projected to increase to 920,000 metric tons (MT), and fresh tangerine production is expected to increase to 400,000 MT.

The prevailing extraordinary factors make it difficult to estimate exports for the rest of the year and the coming year. Other factors have been added to the recurrent volatility of the international dairy market.

For Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22, Post forecasts that fresh deciduous fruit production is estimated to decrease by 7 percent, due to unexpected frost that affected the crops at beginning of October 2021. Some producers had active frost defenses in place and were less affected, while others experienced serious crop losses.

Argentine sugar production for marketing year (MY) 2022-2023 is forecast at 1.71 million tons, raw value, practically unchanged from the previous year. La Niña weather conditions have limited sugarcane production over the last two years, and output was affected by a severe winter last year and a very dry and hot summer early this year.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23 Post projects a recovery in Argentine soybean planted acreage to 17 million hectares (HA) resulting in 51 million metric tons (MMT) of soybean production as farmers shift acreage out of cereal crops that require more fertilizer. MY 2022/23 sunflowerseed planted acreage is projected up at 2 million HA, with total production estimated at 4 MMT in response to high prices.

Wheat exports in marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 are forecast down at 12.6 million metric tons (MMT), as result of a smaller acreage and lower productivity. Meanwhile, barley exports are projected up at 3.7 MMT, which would be the largest on record.