Browse Data and Analysis

Australian oilseed production, dominated by canola, is expected to be strong again in marketing year (MY) 2023/24, but down from the record in MY 2022/23. Canola production is forecast in MY 2023/24 at 5.5 million metric tons (MMT), the third largest from the record-busting crop estimated at 8.3 MMT in MY 2022/23.

In MY 2021/22, the total value of Japan’s soybean imports reached a historical record while rapeseed crush hit the lowest point in 10 years as rapeseed imports from Canada declined.

FAS Manila forecasts copra production at 3 million MT for MY 2023/24 because of the coming El Niño and the break from the 3-year productive cycle. Soybean meal imports are projected to reach 2.9 million MT because of expected expansion in the broiler and aquaculture sectors.

FAS/Managua projects marketing year 2023/24 Nicaraguan peanut production to return to historic high levels, near 200,000 metric tons on an in-shell basis, as deteriorating political conditions and rising economic instability improve the risk-reward calculations of peanuts relative to longer-term investments in sugar or cattle.

As of March 2023, Pakistani authorities still ban genetically engineered (GE) oilseed imports. While they have made some progress in developing a system to allow for GE oilseed imports, uncertainty regarding when that system will be operative clouds the outlook for oilseed imports.

Dryness persists in scattered growing areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. However, there is still time for spring precipitation. Meanwhile, most eastern soybean producers await warmer temperatures to dry the heavy-to-adequate snow accumulation.

India’s rapeseed and mustard (rapeseed-mustard) production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) is forecast to drop slightly to 11.4 million metric tons, harvested from a record 9.2 million hectares following a favorable monsoon performance in the state of Rajasthan.

Bulgarian production of oilseed crops in marketing year (MY)2022/23 was at the same level as in MY2021/22 at 2.4 million metric tons (MMT), from 8 percent higher area harvested due to lower yields impacted by the summer heat and drought.

Turkey’s production of major oilseeds – sunflowerseeds, cottonseeds, and soybeans – in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 is projected to decrease year-over-year because of pre-earthquake market dynamics.

Due to the recent ban on genetically engineered (GE) commodity imports, the 2022/23 soybean import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 1.2 million tons. With the lower expected soybean imports, 2022/23 crush and soybean meal output is reduced accordingly.

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

Marketing year (MY) 2022/23 palm kernel production is forecast at 62,000 metric tons (MT), down by about nine percent compared to Post’s MY2021/22 projection. This is mainly because of an annual three-month drought period (December-February) that negatively affects FFB yield, and consequently kernel yield.