Browse Data and Analysis

Post maintains the projections for 2021/22 and updates MY 2022/23 with an optimistic outlook on production resulting from good weather conditions and an improved labor situation.

India’s soybean, peanut, and sunflowerseed production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is estimated at 11.1 million metric tons (MMT), 6.65 MMT, and 200,000 metric tons, respectively, reflecting heavy late season rainfall in September and October that impacted yields and crop quality.

On larger than expected production loss related Indonesia’s palm oil export ban policy, Post revises down Indonesia palm oil production to 44.7 million ton (MMT) for 2022/23 and updates 2021/22 production to 43.2 MMT. Soybean imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 2.6 MMT on continued demand from tofu and tempeh producers.

Due to uncertainty regarding policy on imported soybeans, the 2022/23 soybean import forecast is reduced from 2.5 to 2.2 million tons. Due to the lower expected soybean imports, 2022/23 crush and soybean meal output is reduced accordingly. Reflecting continued decline in consumer purchasing power due to record level inflation, the forecast for 2022/23 palm oil imports is also reduced.

Côte d’Ivoire has become one of the major palm oil producers on the continent. Since 2018, the country has produced more than 500,000MT yearly. Currently, production is expected to increase 26 percent in MY2022/23 while demand outweighs supply.

Brazil is the fourth-largest export destination for U.S. agricultural and processed products in South America and depends on international suppliers to meet its demand for food processing ingredients, especially specialty products with high added value. These products offer significant opportunities for U.S. companies to supply Brazilian food manufacturers looking to meet the needs of a growing health-conscious consumer market.

China’s marketing year (MY) 22/23 soybean production is forecast to reach a near-record 19 million metric tons (MMT) on higher yields. Post maintains forecasted MY 22/23 soybean imports at 96.5 MMT on higher demand for soybean meal (SBM) for swine and poultry and vegetable oil demand for food sector use. Import growth is forecast to be partially constrained by higher domestic soybean production, ongoing sales of state reserve soybeans, and ongoing uncertainty regarding People’s Republic of China (PRC) COVID restrictions.

Post adjusts the Marketing Year (MY) 2021/22 palm oil production forecast down to 18.2 million metric tons (MT), due to ongoing labor shortages. The MY2021/22 palm oil export estimate is revised to 16 million MT, a drop of 500,000 MT due to the estimated drop in production and resumption of Indonesian palm oil exports. Palm oil prices continue to fall as key buyers, India and China, prefer soybean oil to palm oil.

Interactive Tableau visualization showing the percentage of exported agricultural production for 25 top commodities.

China’s slowing economy and COVID-related restrictions continue to weaken demand for oilseeds for feed and food use. Soybean imports for marketing year (MY) 21/22 and MY 22/23 are revised downward to 92 million metric tons (MMT) and 96.5 MMT, respectively, on weak demand for vegetable oil in the food service sector and soybean meal (SBM) in the swine and poultry sectors.

India’s soybean production estimate for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (October-September) is slightly lowered to 11.4 million metric tons (MMT) because of the impacts of the delayed and erratic 2022 monsoon. Cumulative edible oil imports in the October 2021 to June 2022 period have increased one percent to 10.l MMT, and crude palm oil remains the primary consumed oil.

Palm oil exports for 2021/22 are revised down to 25.5 million metric tons (MMT) on restrictive export policies and weaker global demand. The soybean subsidy program launched in April 2022 unexpectedly caused several importers to slowdown purchases. Feed mill demand for soybean meal continues to drive imports from South American origins.