Browse Data and Analysis

The Canadian cattle herd will continue to contract in 2023. With a smaller cow herd and reductions in heifer retention the 2023 calf crop is expected to be smaller relative to 2022. Feed price volatility and drought concerns, coupled with a contracting U.S. herd, will see live cattle import numbers fall once again.

Sugar production in marketing year (MY) 23 is estimated at 805,000 metric tons (MT), while production for MY22 reached 785,000 MT. Improving international prices have eased the financial burden exerted by the high cost of inputs on the sugar sector.

As a severe drought looms large over the sugar mill areas in the Dominican Republic (DR) and the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) continues to prohibit sugar and sugar-based imports from the top Dominican producer, Post forecasts local production at 530,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (October/September), 12 percent down from the MY 2022/23 estimates.

Post lowers its 2022/2023 estimate for Argentine soybean production to 23.9 million metric tons (MMT). This production estimate is the lowest in 24 year and the yield estimate is the lowest in almost 50 years. As a result of the drought, Post estimates that Argentina will need to import a record 11 MMT of soybeans to achieve a crush of 29.5 MMT.

Wheat consumption in Haiti in marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (July 2023/June 2024) is forecast at 405,000 metric tons (MT), stable compared to the previous marketing period.

In marketing year (MY)2023/2024, Guatemala is forecast to produce 2.6 million metric tons of sugar from sugarcane from a harvested area of 251,000 hectares.

FAS/Managua projects Nicaraguan sugar production and exports recovering in marketing year 2023/24, despite deteriorating political and economic conditions in Nicaragua, with the anticipated arrival of an El Niño weather system and drier weather in the latter half of 2023.

FAS/San José projects Costa Rican sugar production to rebound to 400,000 metric tons in marketing year 2023/24, climbing nearly 10 percent higher from marketing year 2022/23, on drier conditions associated with the anticipated return of an El Niño weather system.

Brazilian corn and wheat productions continue to exceed expectations, setting record-breaking harvests. In contrast, Brazil is expected to produce its lowest rice crop in 25 years due to a period of prolonged drought in the south and low profitability for farmers.

On March 19, 2023, Mexico’s Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risks (COFEPRIS) announced the annual import quota for two types of the agrochemical glyphosate.

On March 15, 2023, the Colombian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Tourism (MINCIT) ignored its own Essential Facts report and issued a final ruling in its countervailing duty (CVD) expiry review investigation of U.S. ethanol, extending the original investigation's $0.066/kg ($0.20 per gallon) duty on imported U.S. ethanol for the next five years.

Wheat consumption in the Dominican Republic (DR) during marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (July 2023/ June 2024) is forecast at 460,000 metric tons (MT), up two percent from MY 2022/23. Dominican wheat imports are forecast at 622,000 MT, a two percent increase from the last forecast due to manufacturers’ international expansion plans as well as expected population and hotel, restaurant and institutional (HRI) sector growth.