Browse Data and Analysis

South Africa is one of the most advanced and varied economies in Africa, boasting a strong business sector and advanced distribution networks to major urban centers in the country and throughout the entire Southern African region.

Record orange juice prices are expected to escalate orange juice production as growers increase deliveries for processing. Growers are diverting oranges from the export market and local sales towards processing on favorable prices.

The cold and wet winter of 2023 provided favorable conditions for deciduous fruit and aided in improved production volumes. Production is expected to grow and improve in quality from MY 2022/23 when fruit was affected by hail damage.

Previously exporters and importers of live animals and genetic materials only required a permit, but a new directive requires prior authorization from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development’s Animal Production Directorate before applying for the permit.

Although extension of anti-dumping duties imposed on frozen bone-in poultry portions from the US would typically mean business as usual as these duties are rebated under the tariff rate quota, a current de-facto restriction on applying general tariff rebates to poultry imported under the TRQ makes the announcement more concerning than usual.

Post expects sugar cane production in MY 2024/25 to show modest growth on carry-over cane and slight increase in harvested area. Sugar production is forecast to improve on slight increase in cane deliveries. The sugar industry effected notional price hikes of white and brown sugar which translated to increases in retail prices of sugar.

Due to a slight increase in cane area and production, sugar production in 2024/25 is forecast to reach 6.8 million tons, 3 percent higher than 2023/24. In line with population growth and demand from the food processing sector, continued moderate growth in sugar consumption is forecast.

Given record area and prospects for good yields, wheat production in 2024/25 is forecast to be a record 28.8 million tons. Due to an anticipated increase in area, 2024/25 rice production is also forecast to set a record.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25.

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports.

With expectations for no change in area, and assuming average yields, cotton production is forecast to decline in 2024/25. Given prospects for an increase in cotton textile exports, domestic use is forecast to increase in 2024/25.

South Africa’s corn crop in marketing year 2023/24 has been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected drop of more than 15 percent in crop volume.