Browse Data and Analysis

As Venezuela’s economy continues to recover into MY 2022/23, Venezuela is expected to increase its consumption of wheat by 5.2 percent. With rising global prices of wheat, Venezuela may shift to more price competitive sources like Brazil and away from the United States for wheat grains.

Continued drought and water shortages is affecting economic activities in Iraq, especially grain production in 2022. The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture cut agricultural cropping in irrigated areas to 50 percent less than the previous year due to shortages in surface water.

The 2021 U.S. Agricultural Export Yearbook provides a statistical summary of U.S. agricultural commodity exports to the world.

FAS Amman (Post) forecasts Jordan’s wheat imports in MY 2022/23 to reach 1.3 million MT driven by fears of war. The Russian war on Ukraine has a direct impact on Jordan, as most of Jordan's wheat and barley come from Black Sea.

MY2022/23 wheat production is forecast flat at 6,000 MT, unchanged from the previous two MYs. Australia recovered its market share thanks to drought recovery but the United States remains the chief supplier with 66 percent market share.

Post forecasts that consumption of corn and wheat in Malaysia will marginally increase in Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23, assuming an eventual stabilization of commodity prices following the disruption caused by the crisis in Ukraine.

Next season, Post forecasts corn area to expand by one million hectares (ha), to a total of 22.5 million ha, and production to top 118 million metric tons (MMT). The wheat planted area will grow to 3.4 million ha, with production reaching nearly 9 MMT.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 Post forecasts Uruguay to increase its wheat area somewhat, but production and exports would be marginally lower than in the past two marketing years due lower expected yield.

Forecasts of below average rainfall and extended dry spells in most parts of the country by the Ghana Meteorological Agency, looming shortage and soaring global prices of fertilizer, and a further cutback on fertilizer subsidy rate are set to erode the grain production gains of GOG’s Planting for Food and Jobs program.

Rice import for MY 2022/23 is forecast to increase by 12 percent as political campaigns and electoral activities leading up to the general election in 2023 gear up. A 4 percent marginal increase in wheat imports is envisioned as the Russia/Ukraine crisis prolongs. High flour mill operating costs will negatively impact the price of flour.

A number of factors have converged over the last 18 months to send global agricultural commodity prices to near-record levels. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – and the potential loss of Ukrainian exports – was the latest development to push commodity prices higher.

Post forecasts overall feed demand to decline by 2 percent in MY2022/23 as prices rise and additional contraction of the swine industry is anticipated. Corn for feed consumption in MY2022/23 is forecast up 2.8 percent, or 6 million metric tons (MMT). MY2022/23 corn, wheat, and rice production are all forecast down due to the push to increase oilseed production and weather conditions in major wheat growing areas.