Browse Data and Analysis

FAS New Delhi (Post) lowers the market year (MY) 2022/2023 rice production forecast to 122 MMT on reduced plantings and yields in the major rice growing states in the Gangetic Plains as result of drought-like conditions.

In marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Bulgaria expects to harvest a corn crop of 2.8 million metric tons (MMT), 18 percent lower than in MY 2021/22. The decrease can be attributed to nine percent decline in area planted, yields severely impacted by the summer drought and heat, and higher pest infestation.

High production costs, price instability and lingering disease threats discouraged livestock production which has kept overall 2022 feed demand flat compared to the previous year. Due to high corn prices as well as flat feed demand, Post revises its marketing year (MY) 2021/22 corn consumption down to 13.80 million metric tons (MMT) and imports down to 9.20 MMT.

Post forecasts China's MY2022/23 feed and residual to decrease one percent from MY2021/22. Corn production for MY2022/23 is forecast at 270 MMT, 4 MMT lower than USDA’s official forecast and 2.5 MMT lower than MY2021/22 due to lower planting area and yield losses caused by excessive rains in the northeast.

FAS Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s wheat imports in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 (July – June) at 11.0 MMT, down from the previous marketing year estimate of 11.5 MMT. Egypt was able to secure a steady supply of wheat through diversification of wheat origins whether through tenders or implementing direct purchasing of wheat from several countries.

FAS Manila revised MY 2022/23 milled rice production downward to 11.975 million MT both because of a 3 percent expected reduction in yields as soaring fertilizer prices result in significantly reduced application and because of the effects of Typhoon Noru (Local name: Karding).

Due to the impact of the recent flooding, the 2022/23 rice production forecast is lowered to 8.3 million tons. With a slow-down in exports during July and August, plus the recent flooding causing a pause in export activities, marketing year 2021/22 rice exports are lowered to 4.5 million tons.

For MY 2022/23, Post maintains wheat and barley planted area forecast, while raising yield forecast on the account of reports that grain harvest and storage operations took place in good conditions. Post forecast MY 2022/23 wheat at 3.3 million metric tons (MMT), and barley at 1.2 MMT.

FAS Tokyo estimates MY2022/23 wheat and rice production in Japan to decrease from last year's bumper crop due to poor weather conditions in major production regions. Due to favorable weather, Post estimates the MY2022/23 barley crop to increase from MY2021/22.

The Government of Morocco has released its final wheat and barley production numbers for the 2022 crop, including 1.89 MMT of common wheat, 0.81 MMT of durum wheat, and 0.7 MMT of barley. The MY2022/23 wheat and barley harvest was down 67 percent compared to previous season due to severe drought.

Corn and wheat production forecasts remain unchanged in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Due to unfavorable weather conditions and less planted area, the sorghum production estimate is revised downward from USDA/Official estimate for MY 2021/22.

On September 9, the Government of Japan (GOJ) announced a 3.5 billion yen ($24.3 million) relief package to alleviate rising food and energy costs, funded through the Japanese Fiscal Year (JFY) 2022 reserve fund.