Browse Data and Analysis

In marketing year 2022/23, wheat production is forecast up more than 50 percent from the previous year on increased acreage and higher yields due to improved soil moisture. Wheat exports are forecast to increase year-over-year on larger domestic supplies. Crop 2022 will be the first sizable crop in four years to compete for rail services with other sectors throughout an entire marketing year. Non-durum and durum wheat are expected to be of high quality, resulting in lower feed-grade wheat supplies.

On September 8, 2021, the Indian government raised its minimum support prices (MSP) for the select rabi (winter-planted) crops, including wheat. FAS New Delhi (Post) forecasts marketing year (MY) 2022/2023 (October-September) rice production at 122 million metric tons (MMT), down six percent compared to last year, due to unseasonal rains in October resulting in water lodging as the rice crop nears harvest.

FAS/Bangkok (Post) revised down MY2022/23 rice production slightly to 19.9 MMT due to flood damage on main-crop rice production. MY2022/23 corn production and imports, as well as wheat imports, remain unchanged from the previous forecast.

For marketing year (MY) 2022/23, Post's forecast for rice harvested area and production remain unchanged at 11.5 million hectares and 35.65 million metric tons (MT), the same as the USDA official forecasts. Post's wheat production forecast in MY 2022/23 also remains unchanged from Post's previous projection.

Due to dry conditions, Argentine wheat production for marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast down at 15.5 million metric tons (MMT), 2 MMT lower than the official USDA estimate. As a consequence wheat exports are lowered to 10 MMT. Barley exports for MY 2022/23 are also forecast down at 3 MMT, 500,000 MT lower than official USDA projection as result of lower production and slower farmer selling.

Colombia’s economy is projected to grow at a slower pace in 2023, restricting a more substantial growth in demand for grains in marketing year (MY) 2022/23. Although the United States continues to be the main sourcing option for Colombian importers of corn given trade preferences under the U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement and geographical advantages, increasing competition from Brazilian and Argentinian corn is expected.

Owing to improved weather conditions, grain production in Turkey in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 is projected to increase year-over-year to 17.3 million metric tons (MMT). Wheat, barley, corn, and rice production are individually projected higher from last year which was hit by intense dry weather.

Ethiopia’s Ten-Year Development Plan (2021-2030) identifies sustained and quality agriculture programs to accelerate economic progress and ensure national food security as its national strategy. The development of small and large-scale irrigation infrastructure in the Ethiopian lowlands has recently been given increasing due attention by the GOE - among other contributing factors like improved seed, fertilizer supply, and use of mechanization on the clustered wheat farms.

FAS-Astana forecasts no significant change to wheat and barley planted area for marketing year (MY) 2022/2023. After production declined due to hot and dry weather last MY, wheat production in MY 2022/2023 rebounded to an estimated 14.5 million metric tons (MMT).

Nigeria wheat millers are diversifying their sources of wheat import due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis. FAS Lagos (Post) estimates wheat imports for MY 2022/23 at 6 million metric ton (MMT), a 3 percent reduction from last year’s Post estimate. Meanwhile, insurgency and floods in the northern part of the country greatly impacted corn and rice production respectively.

Australia is on the path to a third consecutive bumper grain crop in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 after a record setting winter crop and strong summer crop production in MY 2021/22. After another strong start to the planting season followed up by great rainfalls, there is ample moisture to carry the wheat and barley crops through the grain fill stage.

Venezuela's economic recovery continues, strengthening Venezuelans' purchasing power and consumption. As a result, in marketing year (MY) 2022/23 wheat consumption is revised up 4 percent compared to USDA's official forecast, while imports will increase to 1.3 million MT. The United States remains the largest supplier of hard red winter wheat to Venezuela.