Browse Data and Analysis

On larger than expected production loss related Indonesia’s palm oil export ban policy, Post revises down Indonesia palm oil production to 44.7 million ton (MMT) for 2022/23 and updates 2021/22 production to 43.2 MMT. Soybean imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 2.6 MMT on continued demand from tofu and tempeh producers.

Market uncertainty and price volatility in international markets led to flour mills importing more wheat in 2021/22 to hold them over in case of future shortages. Therefore, Post revises 2021/22 wheat imports to 11.3 MMT, up 12 percent from its previous estimate of 10.7 MMT.

The area under citrus cultivation in South Africa has grown steadily over the past decade, driven by ongoing investments on relatively high earnings from export markets. As a result, South Africa is set for record citrus exports of 2.7 million tons in marketing year 2021/22.

On October 28, 2022, Tongaat Hullet’s management announced that they opted to go into voluntary business rescue due to the company’s severe levels of financial distress. On Tuesday November 1, Tongaat Hullet missed the deadline to pay R401 million ($22.9 million) for cane delivered by 4,300 growers in September.

Indonesia 2022/23 coffee production is expected to rise to 11.35 million bags on improved yields. Domestic coffee consumption is revised down from the last update by 30,000 bags following a hike in fuel prices in September 2022. Green bean exports are revised up to 6.6 million bags on increased international demand and the depreciation of the Indonesian rupiah.

On November 9, 2022, The International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa (ITAC) announced the initiation of the sunset review of anti-dumping duties (ADDs) of frozen bone-in portions of poultry from the United States.

Following the approval of a GE potato variety in July 2021, the Government of Indonesia approved four GE corn events for domestic commercial cultivation in February 2022. The U.S. exported nearly $2.2 billion in GE-derived products to Indonesia in 2021.

South Africa has robust and experienced regulatory system for genetically engineered products, which started with the publication of the “GMO” Act of 1997. Today, South Africa is amongst the top-10 largest producers of GE crops in the world and has approved 27 GE plant events for commercial production contained in three commodities, namely, corn, soybeans, and cotton. South Africa’s corn yields doubled over the past 20 years, while soybean production improved 10-fold.

The outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) has significantly disrupted Indonesia’s fresh milk production, which dropped 35 percent compared with the previous years’ production. The decline in domestic fresh milk production has been offset by a significant increase in imported whole milk powder. A rebound of the food service sector industry is expected to support a modest increase in the trade of dairy ingredients in 2022 and 2023.

FY2022 agricultural exports reach record levels.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s corn area will stay flat in marketing year 2022/23. The current high input cost environment and an upsurge in soybean plantings are deterring any bullish outlook in expanding corn area, despite record high commodity prices and three consecutive bumper crops. Higher farming input costs are escalating the risk of production in a weather-dependent industry.

The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) recently stepped up its enforcement of fresh animal product registrations. These new requirements are just two of the many provisions contained in MOA Regulation Number 15 Year 2021.