Browse Data and Analysis

MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25 soybean crush will be well below the five-year pre-pandemic average annual growth due to a slow economic recovery.

FAS/Cairo (Post) forecasts Egypt’s soybean imports in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (October – September) to increase by 14.8 percent from the previous marketing year, due to an influx of foreign currency into Egyptian banks.

Post projects marketing year (MY) 2024/2025 soybean production at 10.3 million metric tons (MMT) with increased planted area of to 3.59 million hectares on increased second crop planting.

Taiwan’s soybean imports are forecast at 2.65 MMT for MY2023/2024 and MY2024/2025, a slight recovery from the previous MY. Weakness in feed demand due to animal diseases was one of the causes for lower soybean imports and reduced crush for MY 2022/2023.

In relation to persistent rising food prices, Japan has seen a decline in overall vegetable oil consumption. Due to the more favorable crush margin for canola compared to soybeans, FAS/Tokyo forecasts a reduction in soybean imports and crush, while seeing an increase in rapeseed imports and crush for both MY 2023/24 and MY 2024/25.

FAS/Managua projects marketing year 2024/25 peanut production to rebound to a record high of 230,000 metric tons on sustained high area planted and improved growing conditions following a damaging El Niño cycle in 2023/24.

For marketing year (MY) 2024/25, Ukrainian farmers are forecast to increase area under all the major oilseeds except for sunflowers. However, regarding production volumes, this increase might be somewhat dampened by lower yields compared to the high levels of MY2023/24.

Post forecasts that South Africa’s oilseed area will be maintained at elevated levels in marketing year 2024/25. South Africa’s summer rainfall oilseed crops in marketing year 2023/24 have been affected by an El Niño induced mid-summer drought, resulting in an expected major drop in crop volumes, creating an optimistic outlook for higher crop area in marketing year 2024/25.

While there is still considerable uncertainty regarding implementation, in January 2024 the government approved a system allowing for the resumption of genetically engineered commodity imports.

Vietnam’s economy is on the path to recovery. Post revises Vietnam’s MY2022/23 soybean meal consumption down to 5.65 MMT due to lower aquaculture feed consumption and forecasts an increase to 5.85 MMT in MY 2023/24.

Post forecasts that Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 planted area will expand at a slower growth rate, reaching 45.6 million hectares (ha). Post forecasts MY 2024/25 production at 157.5 million metric tons (MMT), 4.9 MMT more than the revised estimate in MY 2023/24.

Breaking with historical practice, Korean soybean crushers began operating below full capacity in mid-2023 and are forecast to further reduce crush volume into marketing year (MY) 2024/25. Soybean imports are forecast to recover slightly from MY 2023/24, but will still remain below average levels on sluggish crushing demand.