India: Sugar Semi-annual

Market Year (MY) 2021/22 (October-September) centrifugal sugar production will grow by three percent to 34.7 million metric tons (MMT), equivalent to 31.8 MMT of crystal white sugar, on account of higher yields. Combined, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka will account for 85 percent of India’s total production. India is expected to withdraw its sugar export subsidies for MY 2021/22. However, reduced global supplies and firming sugar prices are forecast to drive India’s exports to approximately seven MMT despite the likelihood of retracted subsidies. India’s consumption estimate remains unchanged at 28.5 MMT (equivalent to 26.6 MMT of crystal white sugar), leading to ending stocks of 14.3 MMT, equivalent to an approximate seven-month supply at average consumption levels.